The Quadrant Playbook

Five maps — the headline index and four pillars. Axes: absolute level (x, split at neutral) × 3-month change (y). Each quadrant carries two sub-cells on the second derivative, ordered like the level axis: left d² < 0 (accelerating downward), right d² > 0 (accelerating upward) — rightward always means more upward force. The deeper into a quadrant the index sits, the more the level term dominates.

Direction glyphs: ▲ up / outperform · ▼ down / underperform · ◆ flat or no tested signal. Sector cells quote the measured mean 3-month return relative to the ASX 200 (percentage points) in that cell of the panel. The 10-year row quotes basis-point forward moves where the study measured them.

Colour rule: each asset's single BEST cell on a map is chipped verdigris, its single WORST cell bronze. The 10-year yield row is read as a holder of duration — green where the yield most probably FALLS, bronze where it most probably RISES.

Evidence tiers, marked per row: ● measured on the AU panel (|t| ≥ 2 on multiple horizons) · ◐ measured on the AU panel but weak, single-horizon, or read through the AU composite-bond proxy (bond returns inverted to yields) · ○ inferred from pillar mechanics — no tested cell. Inferred rows are judgement, and say so.

Confidence pips on the masthead cards score conviction out of five — more filled pips, more conviction, in the colour of the card's read.

Column guide — Index: the five machine lines, the headline composite plus its four pillars. Level: the latest index level in score points on the −2…+2 component scale (0 = neutral; the maps' horizontal axis). Pctile: where that level sits against the line's own history since Dec 2004 (100 = highest ever). 3m Δ: the three-month change in the level — the maps' vertical axis; positive = RISING row, negative = FALLING row. Prior 3m: the same three-month change measured one quarter earlier — the base for the second derivative. d²: the second derivative — 3m Δ minus prior 3m; positive means the move is gathering pace, and it selects the sub-cell within each quadrant. 12m Δ: the twelve-month change — the tail-warning input (trigger −1.25). Cell now: the quadrant and sub-cell the line occupies today. Current prints from context_au.json (13 Aug 2026).

Now: level +0.37 (70th percentile since 2004) · 3m change +0.16 (prior quarter −0.34, d² +0.50) · 12m −0.53 → ABOVE · RISING · pace building.

The equal-weight composite times BONDS, not the index: level→AU 10y ΔY IC +0.23/3m rising to +0.26/12m, and the composite bond proxy (IAF) confirms — best cell LOW/FALLING (+5.0% ann, 71% hit), worst HIGH/FALLING (−4.4% ann) — LOW/MID/HIGH and RISING/FLAT/FALLING name the finer 3×3 study grid, which this page folds to 2×2. Note the asymmetry the C1 grid insists on: yields RISE from every HIGH cell, +23 bp/3m even while the machine is falling — the level term, not the direction, carries the rates call.

For the ASX the composite is nearly mute on average (|t| < 1.1 in the forward grid) — the regime cells carry what edge exists: LOW/RISING +15.8% ann and MID/FALLING +13.2% ann (t 3.9) against the LOW/FLAT disaster cell. Equities are traded off the pillar tilts, not this line.

Column guide — glyphs, quadrant names, evidence tiers and the best/worst chip rule are defined in READ ME. Sector cells quote mean 3-month return vs the ASX 200 (percentage points); 10y and ASX cells quote basis points or annualised returns where measured.

Now: level +0.80 (66th percentile since 2004) · 3m change +0.80 (prior quarter −0.80, d² +1.60) · 12m −0.80 → ABOVE · RISING · pace building.

The snapback is violent: 3m change swung from −0.80 to +0.80 in a quarter (d² +1.60) — the sharpest second derivative on the board. Historically that pace carries yield pressure with it but says nothing tested about the index itself.

Column guide — glyphs, quadrant names, evidence tiers and the best/worst chip rule are defined in READ ME. Sector cells quote mean 3-month return vs the ASX 200 (percentage points); 10y and ASX cells quote basis points or annualised returns where measured.

Now: level +0.67 (76th percentile since 2004) · 3m change −0.16 (prior quarter +0.16, d² −0.32) · 12m +0.17 → ABOVE · FALLING · fall gathering pace.

The economy pillar just tipped over from strength — 3m change +0.16 → −0.16, a fall gathering pace. On this map that is NOT a sell: the pillar is contrarian and lagging for equities (d12m→ASX IC −0.35/12m; Granger tests say markets cause the pillar). The tested rates lead sits in the map footer.

Column guide — glyphs, quadrant names, evidence tiers and the best/worst chip rule are defined in READ ME. Sector cells quote mean 3-month return vs the ASX 200 (percentage points); 10y and ASX cells quote basis points or annualised returns where measured.

Now: level +0.00 (67th percentile since 2004 — the pillar's history skews negative, so zero sits above its median print) · 3m change +0.00 (prior quarter −0.50, d² +0.50) · 12m −1.00 → AT THE ORIGIN · unclassified.

The best-tested AU cells in the study live here: level→AU10y ΔY IC +0.40/12m and →ASX +0.34/6m (t ≥ 3), with the bond proxy confirming (level→IAF IC −0.37/6m). 12m −1.00: support was withdrawn over the year.

Column guide — glyphs, quadrant names, evidence tiers and the best/worst chip rule are defined in READ ME. Sector cells quote mean 3-month return vs the ASX 200 (percentage points); 10y and ASX cells quote basis points or annualised returns where measured.

Now: level +0.00 (44th percentile since 2004; median print +0.25) · 3m change +0.00 (prior quarter −0.25, d² +0.25) · 12m −0.50 → AT THE ORIGIN · just below median.

The optimised AU overlay weights sentiment +0.8 on d12m — the machine's most trusted single AU equity input. But it works through its CHANGE (d3m→10y IC +0.19/3m, →ASX +0.12/6m); the LEVEL is contrarian at 12 months (IC −0.29). The best cell on the map is the regime the context layer already names: ADVANCE ON DEPRESSED SENTIMENT.

Column guide — glyphs, quadrant names, evidence tiers and the best/worst chip rule are defined in READ ME. Sector cells quote mean 3-month return vs the ASX 200 (percentage points); 10y and ASX cells quote basis points or annualised returns where measured.