The Context Layer
A functional macro dashboard on top of The Data Layer — the live pulse of each economy, read mechanically. Four pillars per country: the economic backdrop (labour, spending, credit, housing and its wealth effect), the monetary backdrop (policy rate, curve, credit spreads), the sentiment backdrop (survey confidence, momentum, volatility and the price of risk) and capital markets (index trend, sector rotation, cross-asset correlation). Every score is a fixed rule over primary-source data; every reading traces to a publisher series in the registry. The pillars consolidate into the ANTIKYTHERA index — each pillar an equal-weighted composite of its inputs, the four pillars equal-weighted into a single index per country, tracked monthly through two decades. Nothing here is a forecast.
Economy, markets and monetary conditions all supportive. All four pillar scores and every component input are shown below — the label follows the table, never the other way around.
Volatility subdued, index higher over 6m, near 52-week highs, cyclicals leading, breadth mixed.
Home prices rising, household spending growing, real retail growing, unemployment steady, jobs growth modest, GDP near trend.
Credit spreads tight, cash rate higher over 12m, curve flat, housing credit strong, mortgage rates higher, real cash rate near neutral.
Consumers downbeat, risk appetite healthy, RSI positive, businesses downbeat.
The ANTIKYTHERA Index
The machine's consolidated read, as one line per pillar and one line for the whole. Each pillar index is the equal-weighted mean of its component scores, reconstructed monthly. Fixed-threshold scores apply the same bands throughout; percentile scores are ranked point-in-time within the history available at each month, over the same window the live score uses. A component enters the mean once its history supports a score; slower series hold their score between prints. The aggregate index is the equal-weighted mean of the four pillar indices, and the final point of every line is the live pillar read.
What the machine reads
Auto-generated interpretation — each paragraph is produced by fixed rules over the numbers below, refreshed on every pipeline run. Mechanical, not editorial.
Best 3-month sectors: Health Care, Cons Discretionary, Cons Staples. Weakest: Materials, Communication, Utilities. The cyclical-minus-defensive spread is -0.65 pp over 3 months and +4.24 pp over 6 months — mixed signal — the 6-month window says risk-on, but the last 3 months have rotated back toward defensives: the risk-on move is fading, not confirming. Defensive set here: Health Care, Cons Staples, Communication, Utilities; A-REITs sits in neither bucket.
The 90-day correlation between ASX 200 daily returns and 10-year bond returns (price terms, proxied from yield moves) is +0.62. Positive: equity and bond prices are moving together — the discount rate is driving both assets, and bonds are not hedging equities.
The 10y-2y AGS curve sits at +0.43 pp (28.4% percentile of monthly history since 2013). BBB 5-year spreads are 94 bps (0.0% percentile since 2013). Credit is not signalling stress, but nor is it priced for acceleration.
Mean dwelling prices are +10.2% year on year; real household spending is +2.2%. Over the sample, dwelling-price growth leads consumption growth by about two quarters with correlation +0.35 — the channel is live: housing strength should keep feeding spending.
Cash rate +4.3% against CPI +3.8% puts the real policy rate at +0.6%. Owner-occupier mortgage rates have moved +0.45 pp over 12 months. Policy is around neutral — neither pushing nor braking hard.
Housing credit is growing +7.5% year on year. Business finance outstanding is +10.3%. That is the 78.7% percentile of its 20-year history — leverage is building faster than its norm.
The ASX 200 14-day RSI is 67 — in the healthy uptrend band. Consumer confidence sits at the 1.5% percentile of its history since 2004, business confidence at 17.9%. US high-yield spreads — the global risk-appetite gauge — 270 bps (2.8% percentile). Surveys are depressed while credit is priced for calm — the mood and the market disagree; watch which one blinks.
Capital markets
Index trend, sector rotation and what the cross-asset correlations say about which force — growth or the discount rate — is setting prices.
| Sector | 1m | 3m | 6m | 12m | 6m vs index | Trend | Corr 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Health Care AXHJ · defensive | +8.7% | +27.5% | -5.5% | -34.8% | -7.3 pp | BELOW 200D | 0.26 |
| Cons Discretionary AXDJ · cyclical | +1.8% | +20.3% | +2.5% | -7.2% | +0.7 pp | ABOVE 200D | 0.42 |
| Cons Staples AXSJ · defensive | +1.1% | +14.9% | +9.8% | +8.0% | +8.0 pp | ABOVE 200D | 0.19 |
| Info Tech AXIJ · cyclical | +8.6% | +10.6% | +11.4% | -35.6% | +9.6 pp | BELOW 200D | 0.35 |
| Financials AXFJ · cyclical | +0.6% | +8.8% | -1.9% | +2.5% | -3.7 pp | ABOVE 200D | 0.66 |
| Industrials AXNJ · cyclical | +1.5% | +4.8% | +0.9% | +0.6% | -0.9 pp | ABOVE 200D | 0.68 |
| Energy AXEJ · cyclical | +9.2% | +4.4% | +16.1% | +15.1% | +14.3 pp | ABOVE 200D | -0.22 |
| A-REITs AXPJ · rate-sensitive | +1.2% | +2.2% | -1.7% | -10.3% | -3.6 pp | BELOW 200D | 0.68 |
| Materials AXMJ · cyclical | +10.8% | -0.0% | +5.9% | +43.3% | +4.0 pp | ABOVE 200D | 0.79 |
| Communication AXTJ · defensive | +3.7% | -3.2% | +1.6% | -12.4% | -0.2 pp | BELOW 200D | 0.27 |
| Utilities AXUJ · defensive | +6.3% | -3.9% | +0.4% | -0.9% | -1.5 pp | BELOW 200D | -0.01 |
Economic backdrop
Monetary backdrop
Sentiment backdrop
The mood of the market and the people in it — survey confidence, momentum, volatility and the price of risk. Not core financial plumbing, but what it feels like on the inside; extremes here lead the hard data as often as they follow it.
The signal table
Every input behind the pulse, with its primary filing, last and current reading, mechanical score and the exact basis used to score it. Each component maps to a −2…+2 score from either a fixed economic threshold or a percentile of its own 10-20 year history (basis shown per row). A pillar is the mean of its component scores; the regime label is a mechanical decision table on the four pillar scores. No score is discretionary.
| Pillar | Input | Primary filing | Last reading | Reading | Score | Scoring basis |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Capital markets | 6-month index return S&P/ASX 200 trailing 6-month total price return | Yahoo Finance — ^AXJO as of 12 Aug 2026 | +0.00 % | +1.83 % | -1 | 28.3% percentile of rolling 6m returns since 2004 |
| Capital markets | Drawdown from 52-week high | Yahoo Finance — ^AXJO as of 12 Aug 2026 | -4.24 % | -0.67 % | +1 | fixed bands: 0/-2 → +1..+2, -8 → −1, -15 → −2 |
| Capital markets | Sector breadth above 200-day | Yahoo Finance — ASX GICS sector indices as of 12 Aug 2026 | +45.00 % | +55.00 % | +0 | share of 11 GICS sectors above their 200-day average |
| Capital markets | Volatility (A-VIX) | Yahoo Finance — ^AXVI as of 12 Aug 2026 | 11.12 | 10.39 | +2 | 4.2% percentile of 10y monthly closes, inverted |
| Capital markets | Cyclical minus defensive 6m spread | Yahoo Finance — ASX GICS sector indices as of 12 Aug 2026 | +4.74 pp | +4.24 pp | +1 | average 6m return of cyclical sectors minus defensive sectors |
| Economic backdrop | Unemployment, 12-month change Sahm-style: a +0.5pp rise in unemployment has historically meant recession | ABS Labour Force, Australia as of 1 Jun 2026 | +0.28 pp | +0.12 pp | +0 | fixed bands, rising unemployment scores negative |
| Economic backdrop | Employment growth, year on year | ABS Labour Force, Australia as of 1 Jun 2026 | +1.02 % | +1.73 % | +0 | fixed bands around ~1.5-2% labour force growth |
| Economic backdrop | Real household spending growth | ABS Monthly Household Spending Indicator as of 1 Jun 2026 | +1.50 % | +2.20 % | +1 | HSI through-the-year minus CPI YoY (nominal minus inflation) |
| Economic backdrop | Real retail growth | ABS Retail Trade, Australia as of 1 Jun 2025 | -0.49 % | +1.07 % | +1 | retail turnover YoY minus CPI YoY |
| Economic backdrop | Real GDP, year on year | ABS Australian National Accounts as of 1 Mar 2026 | +2.51 % | +2.52 % | +0 | 53.2% percentile of 20y history |
| Economic backdrop | Dwelling prices, year on year | ABS Total Value of Dwellings as of 1 Mar 2026 | +8.56 % | +10.25 % | +2 | mean dwelling price YoY — the wealth-effect channel |
| Monetary backdrop | Real cash rate (cash minus CPI YoY) | RBA Cash Rate Target as of 11 Aug 2026 | +0.35 % | +0.55 % | +0 | restrictive above ~1% real scores negative, easy below zero scores positive |
| Monetary backdrop | Cash rate, 12-month move | RBA Cash Rate Target as of 11 Aug 2026 | +0.50 pp | +0.50 pp | -1 | hiking scores negative, cutting scores positive |
| Monetary backdrop | Curve slope 10y-2y steep curve = easy conditions priced; inversion = restriction | RBA Table F2 — Capital Market Yields as of 5 Aug 2026 | +0.43 pp | +0.43 pp | -1 | 28.4% percentile of monthly history since 2013 |
| Monetary backdrop | Housing credit growth, year on year the dominant credit aggregate still published post-restructure | RBA Table D1 — Growth in Financial Aggregates as of 30 Jun 2026 | +7.50 % | +7.50 % | +1 | 78.7% percentile of 20y history |
| Monetary backdrop | BBB 5y spread to AGS | RBA Table F3 — Corporate Bond Yields as of 30 Jun 2026 | 94.30 bps | 93.70 bps | +2 | 0.0% percentile of history since 2013, inverted |
| Monetary backdrop | Owner-occupier mortgage rate, 12m move | RBA Table F6 — Housing Lending Rates as of 30 Jun 2026 | +0.36 pp | +0.45 pp | -1 | policy transmission to households |
| Sentiment backdrop | Index RSI (14-day) Wilder's relative strength index on S&P/ASX 200 daily closes | Yahoo Finance — ^AXJO as of 12 Aug 2026 | 52.60 | 67.20 | +1 | fixed bands: <30 washout −2, 30-40 −1, 40-50 0, 50-70 +1, >70 overbought 0 |
| Sentiment backdrop | Consumer confidence OECD harmonised (Westpac-Melbourne Institute survey inputs); 100 = long-run norm | OECD harmonised survey indicators as of 1 Jun 2026 | 98.04 | 97.90 | -2 | 1.5% percentile of history since 2004 |
| Sentiment backdrop | Business confidence OECD harmonised (NAB monthly business survey inputs); 100 = long-run norm | OECD harmonised survey indicators as of 1 May 2026 | 99.83 | 99.70 | -1 | 17.9% percentile of history since 2004 |
| Sentiment backdrop | High yield spread (US, global gauge) no domestic AU high-yield index is published; US HY OAS is the global risk-appetite gauge | ICE BofA via FRED — BAMLH0A0HYM2 as of 10 Aug 2026 | 269.00 bps | 270.00 bps | +2 | 2.8% percentile of history since 2004, inverted |
Sources
| Series | Source | Frequency |
|---|---|---|
| S&P/ASX 200, GICS sectors, A-VIX, AUD/USD | Yahoo Finance (market vendor) | daily |
| AGS yields 2y/5y/10y, curve slope | RBA table F2 (+ F2 history) | daily |
| 3-month bank bills | RBA table F1 | daily |
| Corporate spreads A / BBB 5y | RBA table F3 minus AGS (synthetic) | monthly |
| Credit growth (total / business / housing) | RBA table D1 spliced over D2 history (synthetic) | monthly |
| Cash rate, mortgage rates, CPI, labour force, GDP | RBA / ABS via the live database | native |
| Mean dwelling price | ABS Total Value of Dwellings (SDMX) | quarterly |
| Household spending | ABS Monthly Household Spending Indicator (SDMX) | monthly |
| Retail trade | ABS Retail Trade (SDMX) | monthly |
| Consumer & business confidence | OECD harmonised survey indicators (Westpac-MI / NAB survey inputs) | monthly |
| High yield spread (global gauge) | US HY OAS — FRED compiler alias (ICE BofA originator) | daily |
| Equity risk premium (ASX 200) | UNSOURCED — no freely machine-readable ASX 200 earnings series is published; the US tab carries the US ERP | — |
Pillars disagree — no dominant regime. All four pillar scores and every component input are shown below — the label follows the table, never the other way around.
Near 52-week highs, index higher over 6m, breadth broad, cyclicals leading, volatility mid-range.
Unemployment steady, inflation above target, payrolls near breakeven.
HY spreads tight, fed funds lower over 12m, IG spreads tight, real fed funds near neutral, curve flat.
Consumers downbeat, equities dear vs bonds, RSI positive, business mood average.
The ANTIKYTHERA Index
The machine's consolidated read, as one line per pillar and one line for the whole. Each pillar index is the equal-weighted mean of its component scores, reconstructed monthly. Fixed-threshold scores apply the same bands throughout; percentile scores are ranked point-in-time within the history available at each month, over the same window the live score uses. A component enters the mean once its history supports a score; slower series hold their score between prints. The aggregate index is the equal-weighted mean of the four pillar indices, and the final point of every line is the live pillar read.
What the machine reads
Auto-generated interpretation — each paragraph is produced by fixed rules over the numbers below, refreshed on every pipeline run. Mechanical, not editorial.
Best 3-month sectors: Health Care, Financials, Industrials. Weakest: Real Estate, Utilities, Communication. The cyclical-minus-defensive spread is +0.21 pp over 3 months and +6.51 pp over 6 months — mixed signal — the 6-month window says risk-on, but the last 3 months have rotated back toward defensives: the risk-on move is fading, not confirming. Defensive set here: Health Care, Cons Staples, Utilities; Real Estate sits in neither bucket.
90-day correlation of S&P 500 returns with 10-year bond returns (price terms, proxied from yield moves): +0.61. Positive: equity and bond prices are moving together — the discount rate is driving both assets, and bonds are not hedging equities.
10y-2y Treasury slope +0.48 pp (37.5% percentile); IG OAS 78 bps (11.1% percentile), HY OAS 270 bps (2.8% percentile). Credit is priced for calm.
Effective fed funds +3.6% against CPI +3.5% — real rate +0.1%, 12-month move -0.70 pp. Around neutral.
The S&P 500 14-day RSI is 63 — in the healthy uptrend band. Consumer confidence sits at the 0.4% percentile of its history since 2004, business confidence at 54.6%. High-yield spreads are 270 bps (2.8% percentile). The equity risk premium — trailing earnings yield minus the 10-year — is -1.3 pp (3.5% percentile since 2004). Sentiment is mid-range: neither euphoria nor capitulation.
Capital markets
Index trend, sector rotation and what the cross-asset correlations say about which force — growth or the discount rate — is setting prices.
| Sector | 1m | 3m | 6m | 12m | 6m vs index | Trend | Corr 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Health Care XLV · defensive | +4.5% | +15.2% | +8.2% | +28.9% | -3.2 pp | ABOVE 200D | -0.13 |
| Financials XLF · cyclical | +3.8% | +12.1% | +7.9% | +11.5% | -3.4 pp | ABOVE 200D | 0.28 |
| Industrials XLI · cyclical | +2.1% | +6.5% | +6.8% | +23.5% | -4.5 pp | ABOVE 200D | 0.67 |
| Info Tech XLK · cyclical | +0.2% | +6.2% | +30.5% | +40.9% | +19.2 pp | ABOVE 200D | 0.84 |
| Energy XLE · cyclical | +10.6% | +5.8% | +13.7% | +44.6% | +2.4 pp | ABOVE 200D | -0.35 |
| Materials XLB · cyclical | +4.6% | +2.1% | +0.6% | +20.8% | -10.7 pp | ABOVE 200D | 0.49 |
| Cons Discretionary XLY · cyclical | +1.7% | +0.8% | +0.8% | +6.3% | -10.6 pp | ABOVE 200D | 0.70 |
| Cons Staples XLP · defensive | +0.7% | +0.3% | -2.8% | +2.8% | -14.2 pp | ABOVE 200D | -0.32 |
| Real Estate XLRE · rate-sensitive | -0.8% | -1.1% | +2.9% | +7.5% | -8.4 pp | ABOVE 200D | -0.13 |
| Utilities XLU · defensive | -3.9% | -3.5% | -1.3% | +1.6% | -12.6 pp | BELOW 200D | -0.05 |
| Communication XLC · cyclical | -0.3% | -4.0% | -5.4% | +2.9% | -16.7 pp | BELOW 200D | 0.40 |
Economic backdrop
Monetary backdrop
Sentiment backdrop
The mood of the market and the people in it — survey confidence, momentum, volatility and the price of risk. Not core financial plumbing, but what it feels like on the inside; extremes here lead the hard data as often as they follow it.
The signal table
Every input behind the pulse, with its primary filing, last and current reading, mechanical score and the exact basis used to score it. Same mechanical scoring as Australia: fixed thresholds or own-history percentiles per component, pillar = mean, regime from a decision table. The US economic pillar is thinner — BEA consumption, housing and Fed flow-of-funds series are the next bindings on the expansion path.
| Pillar | Input | Primary filing | Last reading | Reading | Score | Scoring basis |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Capital markets | 6-month index return | Yahoo Finance — ^GSPC as of 11 Aug 2026 | +8.74 % | +11.33 % | +1 | 80.9% percentile of rolling 6m returns since 2004 |
| Capital markets | Drawdown from 52-week high | Yahoo Finance — ^GSPC as of 11 Aug 2026 | -0.45 % | -0.38 % | +2 | fixed bands: 0/-2 → +1..+2, -8 → −1, -15 → −2 |
| Capital markets | Sector breadth above 200-day | Yahoo Finance — Select Sector SPDR ETFs as of 11 Aug 2026 | +82.00 % | +82.00 % | +1 | share of 11 SPDR sectors above their 200-day average |
| Capital markets | Volatility (VIX) | Yahoo Finance — ^VIX as of 12 Aug 2026 | 15.03 | 15.39 | +0 | 34.5% percentile of 10y monthly closes, inverted |
| Capital markets | Cyclical minus defensive 6m spread | Yahoo Finance — Select Sector SPDR ETFs as of 11 Aug 2026 | +2.33 pp | +6.51 pp | +1 | average 6m return of cyclical sectors minus defensive sectors |
| Economic backdrop | Unemployment, 12-month change a +0.5pp rise from the low has historically meant recession (Sahm rule) | BLS Employment Situation as of 1 Jul 2026 | +0.10 pp | -0.20 pp | +1 | fixed bands, rising unemployment scores negative |
| Economic backdrop | Payrolls, 3-month average change | BLS Employment Situation as of 1 Jul 2026 | 77.00 thousand | 20.00 thousand | +0 | fixed bands around the ~100k breakeven pace |
| Economic backdrop | CPI, year on year | BLS Consumer Price Index as of 1 Jun 2026 | +4.25 % | +3.53 % | -1 | scored on distance from the 2% target: within 0.5pp +1, within 1.5pp 0, within 3pp −1, beyond −2 |
| Monetary backdrop | Real fed funds (DFF minus CPI YoY) | Fed H.15 via FRED — DFF as of 10 Aug 2026 | -0.63 % | +0.10 % | +0 | restrictive above ~1.5% real scores negative |
| Monetary backdrop | Fed funds, 12-month move | Fed H.15 via FRED — DFF as of 10 Aug 2026 | -0.71 pp | -0.70 pp | +1 | hiking scores negative, cutting scores positive |
| Monetary backdrop | Curve slope 10y-2y | U.S. Treasury — Daily Par Yield Curve as of 11 Aug 2026 | +0.47 pp | +0.48 pp | +0 | 37.5% percentile of history since 2005 |
| Monetary backdrop | IG corporate OAS | ICE BofA via FRED — BAMLC0A0CM as of 10 Aug 2026 | 78.00 bps | 78.00 bps | +1 | 11.1% percentile of history since 2004, inverted |
| Monetary backdrop | HY corporate OAS | ICE BofA via FRED — BAMLH0A0HYM2 as of 10 Aug 2026 | 270.00 bps | 270.00 bps | +2 | 2.8% percentile of history since 2004, inverted |
| Sentiment backdrop | Index RSI (14-day) Wilder's relative strength index on S&P 500 daily closes | Yahoo Finance — ^GSPC as of 11 Aug 2026 | 60.00 | 63.40 | +1 | fixed bands: <30 washout −2, 30-40 −1, 40-50 0, 50-70 +1, >70 overbought 0 |
| Sentiment backdrop | Consumer sentiment University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers | UMich Surveys of Consumers via FRED — UMCSENT as of 1 Jun 2026 | 44.80 | 49.50 | -2 | 0.4% percentile of history since 2004 |
| Sentiment backdrop | Business confidence OECD harmonised; 100 = long-run norm | OECD harmonised survey indicators as of 1 Jun 2026 | 100.08 | 100.10 | +0 | 54.6% percentile of history since 2004 |
| Sentiment backdrop | Equity risk premium trailing earnings yield (100/PE) minus the 10-year Treasury yield — high means equities are paid to take risk | multpl.com — S&P 500 PE by month (S&P earnings originator) as of 1 Aug 2026 | -1.27 pp | -1.34 pp | -2 | 3.5% percentile of history since 2004 |
Sources
| Series | Source | Frequency |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500, sector SPDRs, VIX | Yahoo Finance (market vendor) | daily |
| Treasury par yields 2y/10y, curve slope | U.S. Treasury daily yield curve | daily |
| Fed funds (DFF), IG/HY OAS | FRED compiler alias (Fed H.15 / ICE BofA originators) | daily |
| CPI, unemployment, payrolls | BLS via the live database | monthly |
| Consumer sentiment | University of Michigan via FRED (compiler alias) | monthly |
| Business confidence | OECD harmonised survey indicator | monthly |
| Trailing P/E, equity risk premium | multpl.com (compiler; S&P earnings originator) minus UST 10y (synthetic) | monthly |
Refreshed mechanically on every pipeline run — observations appended to the live database as vintages, every signal re-derived from source. The regime label is a decision table over the four pillar scores — see the signal table for each pillar's inputs. Nothing on this page is financial advice.